Renewable energy penetration and energy security in electricity markets

The transition from fossil fuels to renewable energies such as wind and solar is being encouraged worldwide. Renewable energy investment costs have been dropping, which, combined with growing incentives, has led a rapid rise in capacity. These changes the electricity market entail great challenges uncertainties, specifically due resource availability. Wind depend on seasonal weather conditions generate energy, radiation, respectively. However, few studies focused analyzing measuring impact of progressive increase short-term its effect security. We developed System Dynamics model be able analyze alternative scenarios levels uncertainties. studied different shares sources economic dispatch security through reliability, reserve margin, resilience, vulnerability measures. High resources (>60%) security—reliability (< 98%), margin (4%), vulnerability—and may lower spot price zero variable costs, which reduce profitability conventional firms short term give closure middle long term. Novelty Statement In this study, system dynamics proposed assess configuration while (wind solar) fall (hydropower fuel). Energy measured by including measures vulnerability, day-ahead market. penetration creates horizontal movement supply curve right, affecting wholesale price, security, firms' profitability. Highlights was studied. under share considered. analyses were performed using for theoretical costs. Low reduces both nonconventional firms.